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Intro
Latin roots.
No business education? No problem!
The best food industry analyst.
Consilience.
Complex adaptive systems.
Diversity.
The wisdom of crowds.
The minimum effective dose of cognitive diversity.
Designing experiments.
Against the Gods and Complexity.
Value investing and the Santa Fe Institute.
A brief 21st-century asset class tour.
Base rates and horses.
Good vs. great investors.
Expanding options when making decisions.
Favorite failures.
Counteracting overreliance on experts.
Intuition.
Time management tenets.
Parental resources.
Perspectives gained by learning about complex adaptive systems.
Recommended reading.
Michael’s billboard.
Parting thoughts.
Opening remarks
How has the world changed since the first version of the book?
Cash Flows
Balance sheet and invested capital calculations
How to use Expectations Investing
Economies of scale
Supply Chain Issues
Distinguishing between maintenance and investment SG&A
Opportunity Cost
Counterpoint's venture investing strategy
Introduction
Writing is understanding
Paradox of skill
Storytelling
Curse of knowledge
Writing style
Wisdom of crowds
Gathering domain expertise
Michael's career
Research process
Finding new things
Finding your edge as a writer
Outlining
Cormac McCarthy
World of synthesis
Learning by doing
Editing process
Injecting personality
Intro
Michael Mauboussin’s early career working under the tutelage of Bill Miller
His introduction to the Santa Fe Institute and how it shaped his investing style
Updating Expectations Investing book
The 3 steps of what Michael Mauboussin calls Expectations Investing
The concept of reflexivity
The problem with investing based simply on multiples
The rise of intangibles - what are they and how to look through them
The golden rule of share buybacks and why they are controversial to some
How to calculate a company's competitive moat
How Michael has updated the Security Analysis course at Columbia
How to determine your own cost of capital
How Much of a Role Does Skill and Luck Play and Our Successes and Failures
Investment Results
How Can Investors Put these Insights To Work and Making Investment Decisions
Heuristics
Distinguish between Fundamentals and Expectations
Dumb Money
How Do Investors Do Worse than the Funds They'Re Investing
Dumb Money Effect
THE FIVE BEHAVIORAL MISTAKES INVESTORS MAKE
WHY DO BEHAVIORAL MISTAKES MATTER?
WHAT'S THE FIRST MISTAKE INVESTORS MAKE?
WHAT'S THE THIRD MISTAKE INVESTORS MAKE?
WHAT'S THE FOURTH MISTAKE INVESTORS MAKE?
WHICH MISTAKE IS MOST IMPORTANT TO OVERCOME?
WHAT TECHNIQUES CAN INVESTORS USE TO OVERCOME BEHAVIORAL MISTAKES?
DO THE TYPES OF MISTAKES MADE SHIFT WITH THE ECONOMIC CYCLE?
HOW HAS YOUR THINKING ON BEHAVIORAL MISTAKES CHANGED?
FAILURE TO USE BASE RATES • FAILURE TO UNDERSTAND REGRESSION TO THE MEAN
How Michael Spends His Time Today
Luck vs. Randomness
How to Build a Process for Investing
Thesis-driven Investing
How to Encourage Your Team to Speak their Mind
EXPLAINED: Everything is a Discounted Cash Flow
The Increased Supply of Capital in Venture
When is the right time to exit a position?
Concentrated vs. Diversified Portfolios
Advice for Young Investors Seeing their First Downturn
Comparing the Crash of 1987 to Today
Pandemic & War: Are we in unprecedented times?
The Value Reshuffling in the Public Markets
Michael's Favourite Book
What makes Bill Gurley special?
Michael's Biggest Strength/Weakness
Best Investment Advice Michael Ever Received
Where would Michael invest $100k right now?
Michael's Biggest Investing Mistake
Michael's Exercise Routine
Why do you still do what you do?
Opening Remarks
Reversion to the mean
How to predict when you'll peak
The average age at which people retire
Why is the Mona Lisa the most famous painting?
Does the pattern of what people do before you influence what you say you like and what you ultimately do?
How much of true performance is luck?
Little Bets
Wisdom of crowds
Closing Remarks
How Michael Spends His Time Today
Luck vs. Randomness
How to Build a Process for Investing
Thesis-driven Investing
How to Encourage Your Team to Speak their Mind
EXPLAINED: Everything is a Discounted Cash Flow
The Increased Supply of Capital in Venture
When is the right time to exit a position?
Concentrated vs. Diversified Portfolios
Advice for Young Investors Seeing their First Downturn
Comparing the Crash of 1987 to Today
Pandemic & War: Are we in unprecedented times?
The Value Reshuffling in the Public Markets
Michael's Favourite Book
What makes Bill Gurley special?
Michael's Biggest Strength/Weakness
Best Investment Advice Michael Ever Received
Where would Michael invest $100k right now?
Michael's Biggest Investing Mistake
Michael's Exercise Routine
Why do you still do what you do?
Introduction
What skills really count in investing
Heuristics and Biases
The importance of analytical, behavioral and organizational skills
Factor Bets
Predictive qualities and persistence
How poorly do individuals do compared to the mutual funds they invest in?
The Arc of Scale
One Investment We All Should Own
Outro