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Introduction
Q1-24 shaping up to be another strong quarter for spot tanker rates
Benchmark Tanker Spot Rates
Global economy showing signs of improvement
2024/2025 Oil Demand Growth Forecasts
1.3-1.4 mb/d of oil demand growth expected in 2024
2024/2025 Oil Demand Growth Forecasts
OPEC+ extending oil production cuts through Q2-24
Rising non-OPEC+ supply from the Americas is positive for tanker tonne-mile demand
Events impacting tanker trades are creating volatility in an already tight market
Vessels diverting via the Cape of Good Hope adding to tanker tonne-miles
Events impacting tanker trades are creating volatility in an already tight market
Reduced Russian refinery throughput could free up more crude oil for export
Events impacting tanker trades are creating volatility in an already tight market
TMX pipeline expansion could lead to 30-35 Aframax loadings per month once fully operational
Events impacting tanker trades are creating volatility in an already tight market
Tanker trade disruption should continue to support spot rates through 2024
Tanker newbuild orders
Tanker orderbook currently 8% of existing fleet size vs. long-term average of 20
Tanker newbuild orders
Ship recycling expected to increase in the coming years
Total tanker fleet growth
Conclusion