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Introduction
Jonny's Massive Trade Shorting Bonds
Analyzing Bond Demand Is Too Hard: Jonny Prefers To Track The Economy
Concerning Changes In Recent Economic Data
Pushing Back Against Jonny's "Recession Denier" Thesis
Manufacturing Can Enter Recession While Overall Economy Is Not In Recession
Excess Savings Indicate American Consumer Still Flush With Cash
Jonny's Macro Trades As Of November 2023
Real Rates Are Unlikely To Go Much Higher
Curve Will Likely Re-Steepen When Fed Cuts Rates
Economy in Europe Is "Much Much Weaker"
Views On The Dollar & The Euro
Bank of England & Inflation In the U.K.
View On British Stocks
China & Japan
Trading Volatility Is Different Than Trading The Underlying Asset
The Danger of Correlations Trades: Ghosts of 2008
Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) Blow-up
Banks Have Changed Dramatically After The Great Financial Crisis (GFC)
Variance Swaps Are Now Capped, Whereas Before 2008 They Were Uncapped
Sector Views
Correlations Change
About Super Macro
Jonny's Bond Short In 2022 Was Truly Colossal In Size