2/ The Russian military apparently lacks the required conventional air defense systems to protect all critical facilities within western Russia and has even struggled to cover important potential targets in reportedly well-defended areas within Russia.

NEW: Ukrainian drone strikes deep within Russia continue to pressure Russia's air defense umbrella and force the Russian military command to prioritize allocating limited air defense assets to cover what it deems to be high-value targets. (1/3) pic.twitter.com/UPCe2tSPlB

2/ Ukraine continues to demonstrate its willingness to negotiate with Russia on Ukraine’s own terms, and Ukraine’s demands for a peace settlement are in accordance with international law — in direct contrast to Russia’s unwillingness to engage in negotiations that end in anything…

I had a meaningful meeting with UN High Commissioner for Refugees, @FilippoGrandi. The main topics of discussion were humanitarian support for Ukraine and assistance in preparing for the winter period. I am grateful for the support provided to our country and our people. pic.twitter.com/ZFKTCvCf6w

NEW: A recent Ukrainian poll indicates that Ukrainians widely reject Russia's demands for total Ukrainian capitulation, emphasizing that the Kremlin's conditions for the end of the war are entirely unreasonable and widely unpopular within Ukraine. (1/3) pic.twitter.com/6eTEB24Snb

3/ Ukraine signed a series of security agreements and received several aid packages amid and following the July 9-11 NATO summit.

2/ The Russian military command may have committed under-equipped units initially intended to act as an operational reserve to combat operations, possibly due to constraints on the Russian defense industrial base or efforts to reinforce ongoing grinding assaults in Ukraine.

NEW: Russian officials and milbloggers reiterated complaints about poor security around critical infrastructure in rear areas of Russia in response to a July 13 Ukrainian drone strike against an oil depot near Tsimlyansk, Rostov Oblast. 🧵(1/5) pic.twitter.com/tmQKuVImSG

NEW: Western and US officials reportedly assess that Ukrainian forces will continue to be on the defensive for the next six months and will not be able to conduct a large-scale counteroffensive operation until 2025. (🧵1/6) pic.twitter.com/5l2S15bWJz

NEW: Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) reportedly conducted successful drone strikes against an oil depot near Tsimlyansk, Rostov Oblast on the morning of July 13. 🧵(1/6) pic.twitter.com/7HfbOweFfq

NEW: Russian authorities reportedly attempted to assassinate leading figures in the European defense industrial base (DIB), likely as part of Russian efforts to disrupt and deter Western aid to Ukraine and Russia's wider efforts to destabilize NATO members. (1/3) pic.twitter.com/cYdjHcX0Ql

On the sidelines of the NATO Summit, together with French President Emmanuel Macron, we discussed the implementation of the Peace Summit decisions, as well as the preparation of the next defense package, security cooperation and training of our military. I am grateful to the… pic.twitter.com/Hls7vnMhL1

2/ Russian officials and information space actors are attempting to deflect responsibility for the Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital strike by making false claims about the missiles involved and the state of the hospital – all contrary to available evidence. pic.twitter.com/tdF4QG7zW6

Held productive discussions with President Putin at the Kremlin today. Our talks covered ways to diversify India-Russia cooperation in sectors such as trade, commerce, security, agriculture, technology and innovation. We attach great importance to boosting connectivity and… pic.twitter.com/JfiidtNYa8

NEW: A Russian Kh-101 cruise missile hit the Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital in central Kyiv during a wider series of missile strikes targeting critical Ukrainian infrastructure throughout the day on July 8. (1/3) pic.twitter.com/Uou0hxcS1W

NEW: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban continues to posture himself as a potential mediator to end the war in Ukraine despite Russian President Vladimir Putin's rejection of mediation or serious negotiations. (1/3) pic.twitter.com/TsD6tPJXSa

3/ Putin stated that an agreement between Russia and Ukraine should not result in a temporary ceasefire since this would allow Ukraine to regroup and rearm and that Russia instead favors a "complete" and "final" end to the conflict.

2/ Putin explicitly rejected Russian participation in any meaningful negotiations on a ceasefire agreement on July 4 in a departure from his usual feigned interest in negotiations, and Putin notably outright rejected any negotiated ceasefire in a July 5 press conference w/Orban.

NEW: Putin used a meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on July 5 to oppose a negotiated ceasefire altogether and expressed his commitment to pursuing a "final" end to the war that would achieve his goal of destroying Ukrainian statehood. (🧵1/4) pic.twitter.com/TK0SACgC6p

2/ Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) officers reportedly detained the commander of the Russian 83rd Guards Airborne Assault (VDV) Brigade, Colonel Artyom Gorodilov, on fraud charges on July 3 following reports of the brigade suffering heavy losses in the Kharkiv direction in…

NEW: Putin explicitly rejected Russian participation in any meaningful negotiations on a ceasefire agreement, instead demanding Ukraine's "irreversible" "demilitarization" as a precondition for any ceasefire agreement. Putin is thus demanding that Ukraine effectively surrender in… pic.twitter.com/7BDlrMAKI6

3/ Ukraine's ability to conduct operationally significant counteroffensive operations at the time of its choosing is crucial to avoid protracting the war. Ukraine latest: isw.pub/UkrWar070324 pic.twitter.com/VZ9Jv4VamD

2/ Timely and appropriate Western security assistance continues to be a crucial determinant of when and at what scale Ukrainian forces can contest the battlefield initiative and conduct operationally significant counteroffensive operations in the future. pic.twitter.com/QbxJ9Sac4V

NEW: Ukraine is addressing its manpower challenges and is forming several new brigades, but delayed and insufficient Western weapons deliveries will likely prevent Ukraine from equipping all these new brigades. 🧵(1/3) pic.twitter.com/cyijdPUUbt

2/ Russian preparations that can support multiple future branch plans suggest a more developed level of operational planning and foresight than the Russian command has proven capable of executing thus far in the war since early 2022.

NEW: The interplay between ongoing Russian offensive operations in the Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Avdiivka directions indicates that the Russian military command may intend to leverage the ongoing Toretsk push to create operational opportunities for advances in either the Chasiv… pic.twitter.com/CQuK0aToOT

2/ The West must hasten to provide Ukraine the support it needs to conduct counteroffensive operations to invalidate Putin's theory of victory and avoid protracting the war more than necessary to secure a peace acceptable to Ukraine and its partners. isw.pub/UkrWar063024 pic.twitter.com/dHnhkQ5B31

NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin's theory of victory that Russia will be able to make creeping advances in Ukraine indefinitely will incentivize Putin to protract the war and harden Putin's commitment to destroying Ukrainian statehood. (1/2) pic.twitter.com/n3Cnq6pW1J

5/ Some new Russian military personnel are reportedly receiving insufficient training before deploying to Ukraine. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 29, 2024: isw.pub/UkrWar062924 pic.twitter.com/TFnCBhOxZy

4/ Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Kreminna, and Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Donetsk City.

3/ Ten Ukrainian civilians whom Russian and Belarusian authorities arrested and held in captivity or prison, including individuals detained before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, returned to Ukraine.

2/ Russian ultranationalists continue to express growing doubt in Russian authorities' ability to prevent another terrorist attack and to address ethnic and religious tensions within Russia following the June 23 terrorist attacks in the Republic of Dagestan.

NEW: Two prominent Russian officials appear to be spearheading divergent paths for addressing religious extremism in Russia as ethnic and religious tension in Russia continues to rise. More key takeaways ⬇️(1/5) pic.twitter.com/bcJloolXaS

3/ The United States withdrew from the INF treaty in 2019 due to Russian violations of the treaty with its development, testing, and deployment of intermediate-range 9M729 (SSC-8) missiles, and Russia suspended its participation in the INF in response.

2/ Putin attended a Russian Security Council meeting in which he claimed that Russia had vowed to uphold the INF's provisions against producing or deploying intermediate-range ground-based missiles until the United States violated these provisions and that Russia must now also…

NEW: Putin directed the production and deployment of nuclear-capable short- and intermediate-range missiles, likely as part of the Kremlin's ongoing reflexive control campaign to influence Western decision making in Russia's favor. (🧵1/5) pic.twitter.com/GVmlowV3Mr

4/ Russia imposed countersanctions against 81 European Union (EU)-based news outlets on June 25 following EU sanctions against four Russian state-affiliated news outlets on June 24.

3/ Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike on a Russian ammunition depot in Voronezh Oblast on June 25 and recently conducted strikes on Pantsir-S1 air defense systems in Belgorod Oblast with unspecified weapons.

2/ Russia and Venezuela signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) aimed at countering "coercive measures," likely to demonstrate to the West that the Kremlin holds influence in the Western hemisphere.